For the moment, the patient is stable

Barry Eichengreen señala que es complicado poder determinar el valor tipo de cambio en el corto plazo (vs. euro o vs. yen o vs. renminbi o vs. una canasta de divisas), el mismo se equivoco en "Why Now is a Good Time to Sell the Dollar". Señala que la volatilidad del dólar en los últimos meses se origina por la re-configuración del apetito al riesgo global. Sin embargo dos factores estructurales deben de considerarse como claves:

The one thing that could precipitate the demise of the dollar would be reckless economic mismanagement in the US. One popular scenario is chronic inflation. But this is implausible. Once the episode of zero interest rates ends, the US Federal Reserve will be anxious to reassert its commitment to price stability. There may be a temptation to inflate away debt held by foreigners, but the fact is that the majority of US debt is held by Americans, who would constitute a strong constituency opposing the policy.

The other scenario is that US budget deficits continue to run out of control. Predictions of outright default are far-fetched. But high debts will mean high taxes. The combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy will mean high interest rates, sluggish investment, and slow growth. Foreigners – and residents – might well grow disenchanted with the currency of an economy with these characteristics.

Current financial crisis stylized facts (Export-Led vs. Dollar Crisis)

These stylized facts follow Kenneth Rogoff’s article

1. Global Imbalances – euphemism for the huge US trade deficit and the corresponding trade surpluses elsewhere, not least China (70% of the excess funds saved by China, Japan, Germany, Russia and Saudi Arabia).

2. Cheap money from abroad juiced an already fragile financial regulatory and supervisory structure that needed discipline more than cash.

3. America’s current-account deficit has now shrunk to just 3% of its annual income, compared to nearly 7% a few years ago.

4. Reinhart & Rogoff find that if financial crises hold one lesson, it is that their aftereffects have a very long tail.

5. Any real change in the near term must come from China [This economy] needs to strengthen its social safety net and to deepen domestic capital markets before consumption take off - consumption represents 35% of national income.

Source: Project-Syndicate.org