Some Lessons

A More Perfect Monetary Union - Balcerowicz

Greek Lessons for the World Economy - Dani Rodrick

Buidilng on Greek-Turkish Detente - Larrabee and Ries

Greece

Writing for PS Soros suggested:

"The most effective solution would be to issue jointly and separately guaranteed eurobonds to refinance, say, 75% of the maturing debt, as long as Greece meets its agreed-upon targets, leaving Greece to finance the rest of its needs as best it can. This would significantly reduce the cost of financing, and it would be the equivalent of the IMF disbursing its loans in tranches as long as conditions are met."

"But this is politically impossible at present, because Germany is adamantly opposed to serving as the deep pocket for its profligate partners. Therefore, makeshift arrangements will have to be found."

Forward

"It is clear what is needed: more intrusive monitoring and institutional arrangements for conditional assistance. Moreover, a well-organized eurobond market would be desirable. The question is whether the political will to take these steps can be generated."

Greece as Argentina revisited

De acuerdo con Kenneth Rogoff:

"Avoiding default may be possible, but it will not be easy. One has only to look at official data, including Greece’s external debt, which amounts to 170% of national income, or its gaping government budget deficit (almost 13% of GDP)."

"But the problem is not only the numbers; it is one of credibility. Thanks to decades of low investment in statistical capacity, no one trusts the Greek government’s figures. Nor does Greece’s default history inspire confidence (Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained independence in the nineteenth century)."

"[…] Like Argentina, Greece has a fixed exchange rate, a long history of fiscal deficits, and an even longer history of sovereign defaults. Nevertheless, Greece can avoid an Argentine-style meltdown, but it needs to engage in far more determined adjustment."